2014 Emmy Predictions: Miniseries and Movies

1400693634000-XXX-NORMAL-HEART-jy-4915-cropToday we will be covering miniseries and movies, one of the more interesting Emmy genres. In 2011, all of the miniseries and movie categories were smashed together because there wasn’t enough competition for them to remain separate. Then FX decided that since American Horror Story was going to tell a different story each season that it could compete as a miniseries and the television academy agreed. I had come around on this but then HBO decided that even though True Detective runs on the same model that it was strong enough to compete as a drama.

Then there’s Sherlock. For whatever reason, maybe because each episode is 90 minutes long, they’re allowed to submit one episode per season as a movie and “His Last Vow” was the episode chosen from series 3.

With several shows redefining what is or isn’t a movie or miniseries, there are now enough for the two to be separated when it comes to best miniseries or movie but they’re still combined for all other categories. Emmy categories are arbitrary and capricious.

Outstanding Directing For a Miniseries, Movie, or a Dramatic Special

American Horror Story: Coven “Bitchcraft” (FX) – Alfonso Gomez-Rejon, Directed by

Fargo “Buridan’s Ass” (FX) – Colin Bucksey, Directed by

Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight (HBO) – Stephen Frears, Direced by

The Normal Heart (HBO) – Ryan Murphy, Directed by

Sherlock: His Last Vow (PBS) – Nick Hurran, Directed by

Ryan Murphy’s directing was probably the worst part of The Normal Heart but how do you vote against the AIDS drama? I feel like all of Fargo was well directed and Sherlock is always visually stunning.

Will Win: Ryan Murphy for The Normal Heart
Should Win: Colin Bucksey for Fargo

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie

Dancing on the Edge (Starz) – Chewitel Ejiofor as Louis Lester

Fargo (FX) – Martin Freeman as Lester Nygaard

Fargo (FX) – Billy Bob Thornton as Lorne Malvo

Luther (BBC America) – Idris Elba as John Luther

The Normal Heart (HBO) – Mark Ruffalo as Ned Weeks

Sherlock: His Last Vow (PBS) – Benedict Cumberbatch as Sherlock Holmes

Sadly, I think Idris Elba has the least chance to win this. He might be the least famous on this list, especially since Chewitel Ejiofor gained more attention after 12 Years a Slave. He’s great on Luther but this category is crowded this year. Ejiofor won a Golden Globe earlier this year for this role. I did wonder if Billy Bob Thornton and Martin Freeman might split the Fargo vote but it turns out that the Emmys use a ranked ballot so that significantly decreases the chance of that happening. I think that The Normal Heart has a pretty big chance in most categories both because it was a well-loved Broadway play before it was adapted for television and because HBO employees make up a large portion of the Emmy voters for some reason or the other. I really do think it comes down to Fargo, though.

Will Win: Billy Bob Thornton for Fargo
Should Win: Billy Bob Thornton or Martin Freeman Fargo

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or a Movieahs

American Horror Story: Coven (FX) – Jessica Lange as Fiona Goode

American Horror Story: Coven (FX) – Sarah Paulson as Cordeila Goode Foxx

Burton and Taylor (BBC America) – Helena Bonham Carter as Elizabeth Taylor

Return to Zero (Lifetime) – Minnie Driver as Maggie Royal

The Spoils of Babylon (IFC) – Kristen Wiig as Cynthia Morehouse

The Trip to Bountiful (Lifetime) – Cicely Tyson as Carrie Watts

Jessica Lange has pretty much owned this category the past two years. She’s usually the best part of American Horror Story, managing to entertain even while everything is falling apart around her. I preferred Sarah Paulson in Coven.

Will Win: Jessica Lange for American Horror Story: Coven
Should Win: Sarah Paulson for American Horror Story: Coven

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie

Fargo (FX) – Colin Hanks as Deputy Gus Grimly

The Normal Heart (HBO) – Jim Parsons as Tommy Boatwright

The Normal Heart (HBO) – Joe Mantello as Mickey Marcus

The Normal Heart (HBO) – Alfred Molina as Ben Weeks

The Normal Heart (HBO) – Matt Bomer as Felix Turner

Sherlock: His Last Vow (PBS) – Martin Freeman as John Watson.

Sorry Colin Hanks and Martin Freeman. This category clearly belongs to The Normal Heart. Matt Bomer probably had the showiest part. Matt Bomer probably wins. This is acceptable.

Will Win: Matt Bomer for The Normal Heart
Should Win: Matt Bomer for The Normal Heart

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie

American Horror Story: Coven (FX) – Frances Conroy as Myrtle Snow

American Horror Story: Coven (FX) – Kathy Bates as Madame Delphine LaLaurie

American Horror Story: Coven (FX) – Angela Bassett as Marie Laveau

Fargo (FX) – Allison Tolman as Molly Solverson

Flowers in the Attic (Lifetime) – Ellen Burstyn as Olivia

The Normal Heart (HBO) – Julia Roberts as Dr. Emma Brookner

Allison Tolman probably should have been nominated as a lead actress but FX probably thought that she’d have better luck at winning as supporting. They’re most likely  assuming (probably correctly) that Jessica Lange has that category locked up and that’s already a win for their network so why not submit Tolman as supporting and get another win? She certainly deserves it. I have a sinking feeling that Julia Roberts will probably win instead.

Will Win: Julia Roberts for The Normal Heart
Should Win: Allison Tolman for Fargo

Outstanding Writing for a Miniseries, Movie, or Dramatic Special

American Horror Story: Coven – Ryan Murphy, Written by; Brad Falchuck, Written by

Fargo “The Crocodile’s Dilemma” (FX) – Noah Hawley, Written by

Luther (BBC America) – Neil Cross, Written by

The Normal Heart (HBO) – Larry Kramer, Screenplay by

Sherlock: His Last Vow (PBS) – Steven Moffat, Written by

Treme “…To Miss New Orleans” (HBO) – David Simon, Written by; Eric Overmyer, Written by

OK, I no longer understand the Emmy definition of miniseries at all. How was the fourth season of Treme a miniseries. I give up! I’d love to retroactively give David Simon all the writing Emmys for The Wire but Treme is not nearly as good as The Wire. This is another one that almost certainly comes down to Fargo versus The Normal Heart and I think that Fargo might have a decent chance. If Noah Hawley’s writing hadn’t been so spot on, this Coen Brothers adaptation would have stood no chance.

Will WinFargo
Should WinFargo

Outstanding Miniseriesfargo

American Horror Story: Coven (FX)

Bonnie & Clyde (Lifetime)

Fargo (FX)

Luther (BBC America)

Treme (HBO)

The White Queen (Starz)

Fargo is free from The Normal Heart! It has to take this one.

Will WinFargo
Should WinFargo

Outstanding Television Movie

Killing Kennedy (National Geographic Channel)

Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight (HBO)

The Normal Heart (HBO)

Sherlock: His Last Vow (PBS)

The Trip to Bountiful (Lifetime)

If you’ve read this far, you know what I’m going to say, right?

Will WinThe Normal Heart
Should Win: *The Normal Heart

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