Oscars 2014: Nomination Predictions

theoryofeverythingIt’s that time again! Today and tomorrow are the most exciting days of the awards season year. Today is the day of posting wild speculations on who’s going to get nominated, and tomorrow we already get to see if we were right. The Oscars themselves are great, but it’s also the end. This is the high point of the season, with the maximum number of possibilities still in play. Whee!

Best Picture

Let’s start off with a bang. As I said a bit in the Golden Globes prediction piece, the two frontrunners are Boyhood and Birdman, with the addition here of Selma. Both of the British Mid-Century Genius Biopics have held on strongly, and Grand Budapest Hotel has gotten so much traction that it’s hard for me to not imagine it getting a nomination. Foxcatcher has been getting pushed hard, it feels like. As we all remember, there can be between 5 and 10 nominations in this category. I am sure the following films are getting nominated. Continue reading

Golden Globes 2015: Movie Predictions

nightcrawlerIt’s an admirable thing, to put on one’s To Do list on October 26th, “Write too-early Oscars post.” It’s kind of less admirable when you don’t get that post written by January, by which time the critics associations and most guilds have given awards, half the movies have already come out, and oops, the Golden Globes already have nominations out. To say I’m behind on this Oscar season is an understatement.

But that’s not going to stop me! Let’s talk arbitrarily about the Globe nominations before the ceremony happens and I miss it all, shall we? Continue reading

2013 Oscars Predictions: Now with actual predictions!

At last, we have arrived at that holiest of High Holy Days: the actual day of the Oscars. I’m so excited, I don’t have the words. Just imagine me flapping my hands wildly and making a noise a lot like “squee.” For six or more hours.

And, as promised, I have my Actual Oscars Picks. There’s still time to lock in your bets at your local sportsbook or oddsmaker. I have arranged my picks in a confidence list, according to Jeff Bayer’s yearly Oscar Bowling game. This is the fourth year I’ve played, because I’m obsessed.  My scores for previous years go like this:

2011: 232
2012: 224
2013: 249

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2013 Oscars: Oscar Odds!

oscar-oddsToday, on Oscar Night Eve, we’ll stop talking about what I think is going to win and talk about what some oddsmakers think is going to win. 


So first, a brief overview of how betting works. The number on the right is how many you have to bet to get the number on the left. The ratio of those numbers indicates how likely the oddsmaker thinks that thing is to happen: if something is 100/1, you only have to bet $1 and if it comes true, you get $100 back. But that means it’s not very likely to happen, because if it were going to happen every day, the oddsmaker would lose $99 every day, and that isn’t going to make them any money. Odds are set so that people are equally likely to bet both sides. That’s how sportsbooks make money: they set the line (odds, etc) at exactly the point where people will be willing to bet both sides of it; only one side will be right and the sportsbook keeps the money from the losers.

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2013 Oscars Predictions: Who the heck knows?

oscarsWrapping up the individual category breakdown, this is the last batch of movies that seem the most up in the air. For the other categories, click the “Oscars” tag on this post to see all posts on the topic (both this week and all time).

Documentary: Guys, this is hard. I mean, not just hard to predict who might win, but hard to even write about because The Act of Killing was my number one film of last year, and it looks like it might be upstaged by my #6 film of the year, 20 Feet from Stardom. And that’s not to mention the third major contender, The Square, which has had a last-minute surge (as more people have had a chance to see it) and which reverberates strongly with the events in Kiev and other revolutions in the two years since the one in the film.

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2013 Oscars Predictions: Getting a Little Murky

oscarsToday, we break down the next level of random categories that I’m a little less sure of than yesterday’s batch, about which in turn I was less sure of than Tuesday’s. I’m saving Best Picture for tomorrow, though, so you still have something to read for.

Foreign Film: I’ve only seen two of these nominees, but they were both really good, which beats the average from last year (Kon-Tiki, I’m looking at you).

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2013 Oscars Predictions: Things With a Bit More Wiggle Room

oscarsToday we move into categories that are more up for grabs than yesterday’s locks. As it happens, today involves a lot of bitterness. I’m a happy member of the camp that espouses “It’s only a snub if you can say what should have gotten left out,” but I don’t even care what you would have to leave out to include two of today’s nominees. 

Sound Mixing and Sound Editing: Some day, it will come time to learn once and for all in some kind of lasting way what the difference between these categories is. Today is not that day, as these are two categories that have no answer to “Why shouldn’t Gravity sweep all the technical awards?” Continue reading

Oscar Nominations Predictions

The 85th Academy Awards® will air live on Oscar® Sunday, February 24, 2013.


These are the overarching themes, as I see them, going into Oscar nomination morning:

  • I am not expecting American Hustle to sweep the acting categories. It’s possible, but I’m predicting that Christian Bale isn’t able to squeak in in the toughest category in years.
  • I still expect 12 Years a Slave to lead the nominations. It’ll get three acting, Best Picture, director, cinematography, and some miscellaneous sound ones I can’t ever keep straight. At minimum.
  • If it doesn’t, it’ll be American Hustle, and the nation itself will weep.
  • Gravity will be in the mix as the second or third most nominated movie.

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Golden Globes Preview: Movie Edition

The Golden Globes are upon us! We each have posts coming predicting the winners, but to prevent massive text overload, we’ve broken it into two parts. Here, for your enjoyment, is the movie half of the preview. Our TV predictions are here.

So, before any actual predictions, the biggest disclaimer in the world: I don’t know anything about the Golden Globes. What I know about the Golden Globes is that they split their categories weirdly and that they are the biggest ceremony before the Oscars, but don’t actually have a ton of predictive value. Therefore I am interested as far as eyebrow-raising inclusions in nominations and outlier winners, but I don’t pretend to know the trends or voting history. Unlike the Oscars, where I know everything. Obviously.

That said, let’s do this!

Best Screenplayher

Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell and Eric Warren Singer, American Hustle

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