It’s an admirable thing, to put on one’s To Do list on October 26th, “Write too-early Oscars post.” It’s kind of less admirable when you don’t get that post written by January, by which time the critics associations and most guilds have given awards, half the movies have already come out, and oops, the Golden Globes already have nominations out. To say I’m behind on this Oscar season is an understatement.

But that’s not going to stop me! Let’s talk arbitrarily about the Globe nominations before the ceremony happens and I miss it all, shall we?

Broad Strokes

So the two main movies leading this particular contest are Boyhood and Birdman (review of Birdman here, Boyhood… coming soon). For as different as they are in tone and concept, they’re getting a lot of the same awards buzz. They’re both getting acclaim for the directing; Boyhood for pulling off the feat of filming a single movie over twelve years, and Birdman for making it look like the whole thing is one take. They’ll both be in the discussion for Best Film at the Oscars Boyhood is getting editing talk, Birdman is getting cinematography, so there’s your quick dip into technical categories. Then they’re both getting acting talk, and even match up in some of the categories. It’s Edward Norton v. Ethan Hawk in Supporting Actor, and Emma Stone v. Patricia Arquette in Supporting Actress. If it’s a race, Michael Keaton breaks the tie, but there are a lot of other movies to contend with. Let’s take it a category at a time…

I’m not covering all the categories because I don’t have to, so nyah.

Best Animated Feature Film

Big Hero 6
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Lego Movie

If The Lego Movie doesn’t steamroll through every animated category this awards season, I don’t understand the world anymore and should retire (…won’t, but should).

Will win: The Lego Movie

Best Screenplay Motion Picture

Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Gillian Flynn – Gone Girl
Alejandro González Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. – Birdman
Richard Linklater – Boyhood
Graham Moore – The Imitation Game

I don’t care, but it had better not be Imitation Game because that movie is terrible. Also, Boyhood is cheating here, because that movie doesn’t have a real script. Maybe Wes Anderson gets his moment, a la Spike Jonze?

Will win: Wes Anderson

**Best Actor in a Motion Picture Drama***

Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler
David Oyelowo – Selma
Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything

YAY JAKE GYLLENHAAL WAS NOMINATED YAY!!!! When I saw Nightcrawler it completely blew me away, and I was so frustrated because I hadn’t seen any buzz at all for his performance. I’m so glad he’s getting recognized now, because omg, is he creepy and terrifying. Review here, which as I recall is mostly “ZOMG JAKE GYLLENHAAL IS CREEPY EEEAAAGHHH.” He actually has a chance to win this too, without a prominent frontrunner in the category (well, mostly with Michael Keaton being split out into a different category). For all the early buzz, Steve Carell seems to have faded, and Cinnamon Toastencrunch never had it. Eddie Redmayne was pretty darn fantastic, and I haven’t seen Selma, so… sure?

Will win: Oh, I don’t know. David Oyelowo?

Best Actress in a Motion Picture Drama

Jennifer Aniston – Cake
Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore – Still Alice
Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon – Wild

Jennifer Aniston, huh? We’re doing this? Huh. I really loved Felicity Jones and Rosamund Pike, and I haven’t seen the other movies. Julianne Moore is winning, though. The internet says so.

Will win: Julianne Moore

Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy Film

Amy Adams – Big Eyes
Emily Blunt – Into the Woods
Helen Mirren – The Hundred Foot Journey
Julianne Moore – Maps to the Stars
Quvenzhane Wallis – Annie

Poor Amy Adams. She was a frontrunner in this category and for the Oscar right up until her movie actually came out and everyone said “Oh. Well.” With that flopping and no groundswell of support anywhere else, this is Emily Blunt’s category to lose (though it would be completely delightful if Julianne Moore won both categories).

Will win: Emily Blunt

Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy Film

Michael Keaton – Birdman
Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Bill Murray – St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice
Christolph Waltz – Big Eyes

Michael Keaton has been the frontrunner all season, but since he’s been the frontrunner, there’s an outside shot that Ralph Fiennes sneaks in here. Bill Murray and Christoph Waltz are not getting nominated for the Oscar, but I have repeatedly proven my inability to accurately predict Awards Season Sentiment for Wes Anderson films, so don’t ask me about Joaquin Phoenix.

Will win: Michael Keaton

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
Emma Stone – Birdman
Meryl Streep – Into the Woods

This is Patricia Arquette’s category to lose. So… her?

Will win: Patricia Arquette

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Robert Duvall – The Judge
Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
Edward Norton – Birdman
Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons – Whiplash

JK Simmons is the hands-down leader in this category, which is a bit baffling, because three of the other performances are so good. Mark Ruffalo is absolutely the best part about Foxcatcher. Edward Norton is delightful and hilarious in Birdman. And Ethan Hawk is really good in Boyhood! I liked him! I liked all three of them! Why do we have to keep talking about Whiplash? It’s terrible and should go away. Besides, while JK Simmons does his part very well, he’s given exactly one thing to do. Hmph. Hmph, I say!

Will win: JK Simmons

Best Director Motion Picture

Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ava Duvernay – Selma
David Fincher – Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Birdman
Richard Linklater – Boyhood

As mentioned earlier, the two frontrunners everywhere else both have really interesting gimmicks to tout here. It’s probably Boyhood‘s category to lose, but how cool would it be if Ava Duvernay got it? Did you know that she is neither a man, nor white? I know, I didn’t realize that non-males could get nominated for these categories either! Hooray Ava Duvernay, for getting nominated! May it continue on to the Oscars!

Will Win: Richard Linklater

Best Motion Picture Drama

“Boyhood”
“Foxcatcher”
“The Imitation Game”
“Selma”
“The Theory of Everything”

This is a pretty good line up, and I expect all five films to get nominated for Oscars. It’s looking like a three-way race between Boyhood, Selma, and Birdman, so it’s a toss-up between the first two here. Boyhood is the prohibitive favorite for the Oscar, but I expect if Selma wins here it’ll get everyone all abuzz. (Which makes no actual sense, because voting closed for the Oscar nominations already, and the groups voting are completely different, but whatever! Awards season, whee!).

Will win: Who the heck knows? Argh, Boyhood. I guess.

Best Musical or Comedy Film

“Birdman”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Into the Woods”
“Pride”
“St. Vincent”

This category doesn’t exist at the Oscars (obviously), so it’s an exciting chance to reward something that the Oscars won’t (in the world where the Drama nominations map to the Oscar nominations and these ones largely don’t). It’s not going to be Pride or St. Vincent, and Grand Budapest Hotel has gotten a remarkable amount of praise that I wasn’t totally expecting this awards season. Into the Woods has been a hit, so it’s actually in play here too.

Will win: Birdman?