I am bad at predicting things. I correctly predicted 12 out of 26 awards that were given out tonight, bringing me to an accuracy of 46%. I did successfully predict that I would be a wreck during the Robin Williams tribute. Of course, the rest of the In Memoriam reel already had me in a weak emotional state because they included Don Pardo saying “It’s Saturday Night Live!” paired with reminding me of just how many people died this past year.

The voters really chose to latch onto a show in each genre and give it as many awards as it could possibly give. My optimism led me astray in comedy and instead of the Orange is the New Black sweep that I had hoped for, most of the honors went to Modern Family again. Also, Emmy voters, why didn’t you like Fargo? Fargo was excellent. And it’s not even like your weird FX aversion kept you from recognizing it because you totally gave Allison Tolman’s award to Kathy Bates for another, worse FX show.

A breakdown of the categories accompanied by my predictions from last week follows after the jump.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy

Who I Thought Would Win: Tony Hale for Veep
Who I Though Should Win: Andre Braugher for Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Who Actually Won: Ty Burrell for Modern Family

I really did think that the Emmy voters were over Modern Family but Phil Dunphy was always my favorite part of that show back when I still watched it so if someone had to win for that show, I’m glad that it was Ty Burrell.

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

Who I Thought Would Win: Liz Friedman and Jenji Kohan for Orange is the New Black
Who I Thought Should Win: Alec Berg for Silicon Valley
Who Actually Won: Louis C.K. for Louie

I’m perfectly happy to have gotten this one wrong. I liked all of the nominees in this category except for Episodes. Plus, Louis C.K. appropriately started his acceptance speech with a thank you to Sarah Baker whose delivery totally sold the episode and continued to thank all of the people who make his weird little show work.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy

Who I Thought Would Win: Allison Janney for Mom
Who I Thought Should Win: Kate Mulgrew for Orange is the New Black
Who Did Win: Allison Janney for Mom

Good on Allison Janney. This is her sixth Emmy win and her second this year so it would have been nice to see the award go to another deserving actress but I like Allison Janney. I’m also happy that I finally got one right.

Outstanding Directing For a Comedy Series

Who I Thought Would Win: Jodie Foster for Orange is the New Black
Who I Thought Should Win: Jodie Foster for Orange is the New Black
Who Actually Won: Gail Mancuso for Modern Family

Apparently the Emmy voters aren’t all that over Modern Family at all. Still, I am almost always happy when a woman wins an award for directing because it is a very male dominated field. I haven’t seen the episode in question. Maybe it was very good.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Who I Thought Would Win: Jim Parsons for The Big Bang Theory
Who I Thought Should Win: Louis C.K. for Louie
Who Actually Won: Jim Parsons for The Big Bang Theory

It’s possible that Jim Parsons will continue to win awards for this role until The Big Bang Theory goes off of the air in 20 years. It’s a showy role. I think other than Louis C.K., he might have been the one I wanted to win in this category. Lead actor in a comedy appears to have had a week field this year.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Who I Thought Would Win: Taylor Schilling for Orange is the New Black
Who I Thought Should Win: Taylor Schilling for Orange is the New Black
Who Actually Won: Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Veep

I shouldn’t have gotten this one wrong. Julia Louis-Dreyfus is amazing on Veep and this is her third consecutive win for the role. Emmy voters do not like change. Plus, just to show how great of a comedic actress she is, she set up a joke with Bryan Cranston when they presented earlier in the show that paid off when she won. She’s genius.

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

What I Thought Would Win: The Voice
What I Thought Should Win: Top Chef or The Voice
What Actually Won: The Amazing Race

Well, we had a few years where some other reality show won but I guess the voters thought that The Amazing Race needed a nice even 10 wins. Sure. Why not.

Outstanding Writing for a Miniseries, Movie, or Dramatic Special

Who I Thought Would Win: Noah Hawley for Fargo
Who I Thought Should Win: Noah Hawley for Fargo
Who Actually Won: Steven Moffat for Sherlock: His Last Vow

This was my first genuine surprise of the ceremony. I didn’t even think about it happening because I just assumed that it wouldn’t. While I haven’t been happy with most of Steven Moffat’s recent work on Doctor Who, I’ve always been happy with the episodes of Sherlock that he’s written. So happy about this one.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie

Who I Thought Would Win: Allison Tolman for Fargo
Who I Thought Should Win: Allison Tolman for Fargo
Who Actually Won: Kathy Bates for American Horror Story: Coven

What?! No. No no no no no. This was Allison Tolman’s award. Kathy Bates does not need an Emmy and the fact that that Emmy was for my least favorite season of American Horror Story makes it that much worse. Someone else give Allison Tolman work so that she can come back and win all the awards.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie

Who I Thought Would Win: Matt Bomer for The Normal Heart
Who I Thought Should Win: Matt Bomer for The Normal Heart
Who Actually Won: Martin Freeman for Sherlock: His Last Vow

The Emmy voters did not go for The Normal Heart the way I thought they would. Maybe they saw the stage show and knew that the adaptation was an inferior product. Compare Martin Freeman in Sherlock to Martin Freeman in Fargo and it becomes clear why he won this thing. He’s a damn fine actor.

Outstanding Directing For a Miniseries, Movie, or a Dramatic Special

Who I Thought Would Win: Ryan Murphy for The Normal Heart
Who I Thought Should Win: Colin Bucksey for Fargo
Who Actually Won: Colin Bucksey for Fargo

Yay, Fargo! This is the best thing. I have nothing more to say that I haven’t already said.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie

Who I Thought Would Win: Billy Bob Thornton for Fargo
Who I Thought Should Win: Billy Bob Thornton or Martin Freeman for Fargo
Who Actually Won: Benedict Cumberbatch for Sherlock: His Last Vow

Did the Emmy voters collectively watch a series 2 episode of Sherlock instead of the series 3 one that they were supposed to watch. I still enjoyed “His Last Vow” but Fargo was so much better. I suppose I can at least content myself with the fact that they aren’t showering Ryan Murphy with awards.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie

Who I Thought Would Win: Jessica Lange for American Horror Story: Coven
Who I Thought Should Win: Sarah Paulson for American Horror Story: Coven
Who Actually Won: Jessica Lange for American Horror Story: Coven

Jessica Lange kept saying how surprised she was that she won. It’s probably because she knew how crappy this season of American Horror Story was because otherwise she was the most obvious win for this category.

Outstanding Miniseries

What I Thought Would Win: Fargo
What I Thought Should Win: Fargo
What Actually Won: Fargo

At least Sherlock: His Last Vow couldn’t mess up this category for me because for some reason its considered to be a movie. Fargo deserved more awards than this but if it could only win two then best miniseries had to be one of them.

Outstanding Television Movie

What I Thought Would Win: The Normal Heart
What I Thought Should Win: The Normal Heart
What Actually Won: The Normal Heart

So Sherlock won best writing and best supporting and lead actor and The Normal Heart didn’t win best directing or supporting actress but somehow it’s the best movie? Sure, Emmy voters. Makes sense.

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special

Who I Thought Would Win: Ken Ehrlich and David Wild for The Beatles: The Night That Changed America
Who I Thought Should Win: Barry Adelman, Tina Fey, Amy Poehler, John Macks, Dave Boone, Alex Baze, Robert Carlock, Sam Means, Seth Meyers, and Mike Shoemaker for The 71st Annual Golden Globes Awards
Who Actually Won: Sarah Silverman for Sarah Silverman: We Are Miracles

While I love when Tina Fey and Amy Poeher host the Golden Globes, I do think it’s weird when one awards show wins an award at another awards show and while I don’t always love Sarah Silverman, I am sometimes amused by her and agree with many points that she makes. This win is fine, even though it brings my rate of successful predictions down really low.

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special

Who I Thought Would Win: Whomever is directing this year’s Emmy ceremony so that he can be all smug about his win from the booth and give himself as much time as he’d like for his speech without being played off.
Who I Thought Should Win: Beth McCarthy Miller and Rob Ashford for The Sound of Music Live! because women don’t win enough directing awards.
Who Actually Won: Glenn Weiss for the 67th Annual Tony Awards

Oh look, the guy who directed this year’s Emmy awards show also won the award for directing a variety special. He did keep his speech pretty short, though, and last year’s Tony awards included that excellent Neil Patrick Harris opening number so this is a totally deserved award.

Outstanding Variety Series

What I Thought Would Win: The Colbert Report
What I Thought Should Win: The Colbert Report
What Actually Won: The Colbert Report

Yes! Also, Stephen Colbert turning Gwen Stefani’s mispronunciation of his last name into whispering his acceptance speech into Jimmy Fallon’s ear for him to deliver, including some words that had to be blanked out was perfect. It was also great that he mentioned that his writers won at the Creative Arts Emmys and that theres only one woman among them. More women comedy writers, please!

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Who I Thought Would Win: Aaron Paul for Breaking Bad
Who I Thought Should Win: Josh Charles for The Good Wife
Who Actually Won: Aaron Paul for Breaking Bad

Aww, he loved that role so much and he loves his wife even more. I would have loved to see Josh Charles take it, I really would have, but Aaron Paul has broken my heart so many times and he deserves an award for that.

**Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series***

Who I Thought Would Win: Cary Joji Fukunaga for True Detective
Who I Thought Should Win: Cary Joji Fukunaga for True Detective
Who Actually Won: Cary Joji Fukunaga for True Detective

It would have been pretty silly if I got this one wrong. This award has been won since before the show premiered.

Outstanding Supporting Actress for a Drama Series

Who I Thought Would Win: Anna Gunn for Breaking Bad
Who I Thought Should Win: Anna Gunn for Breaking Bad
Who Actually Won: Anna Gunn for Breaking Bad

This award was for all of the Skyler White haters out there, especially the ones who couldn’t separate the actress from the role.

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

Who I Thought Would Win: Nic Pizzolatto for True Detective
Who I Thought Should Win: Moira Walley-Beckett for Breaking Bad
Who Actually Won: Moira Walley-Beckett for Breaking Bad

Yes! “Ozymandias” was one of the best hours of television that I watched last year. I wish that Rian Johnson had been nominated for directing it but I’m so glad that Moira Walley-Beckett won for writing it. I do wonder if the reason she did win though was because of the plagiarism accusations laid upon Nic Pizzolatto.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Who I Thought Would Win: Julianna Margulies for The Good Wife
Who I Thought Should Win: Robin Wright for House of Cards
Who Actually Won: Julianna Margulies for The Good Wife

Julianna Margulies had strong storylines in both halves of the most recent season of The Good Wife. She did get a little dig in at the fact that most network shows have to do twice as many episodes as most of the cable and Netflix dramas but the problem is that most network dramas aren’t as well done as The Good Wife. I’d prefer that the show got some attention for writing but I can’t say that Margulies didn’t deserve the award for her work on this past season.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Who I Thought Would Win: Matthew McConaughey for True Detective
Who I Thought Should Win: Matthew McConaughey for True Detective
Who Actually Won: Bryan Cranston for Breaking Bad

Well. I really did think that this was the easiest acting category to predict. I just assumed that the TV people liked to award the movie people for deigning to honor them with their presence. Plus, Matthew McConaughey just was this part. If the academy hadn’t previously given Bryan Cranston Emmys for this role, then I might have expected this but I didn’t see this one coming.

Outstanding Comedy Series

What I Thought Would Win: Orange is the New Black
What I Thought Should Win: Louie
What Actually Won: Modern Family

After the earlier wins, I knew this would be the outcome. Maybe the Emmy voters will finally be over this show next year.

Outstanding Drama Series

What I Thought Would Win: Breaking Bad
What I thought Should Win: Breaking Bad
What Actually Won: Breaking Bad

The Emmy voters just couldn’t bring themselves to award new shows other than a few token awards, could they? At least Breaking Bad was good. I’m going to miss that beautiful show but I’m glad that it will make room for other shows to get some recognition.