2014 Emmy Predictions: Drama


true-detective-harrelson-mcconaughey-610x348It’s the Breaking Bad vs. True Detective Showdown! Really, that’s what most of the categories are about. Unless it’s the actress categories because who cares about women, am I right.

Excuse me. I’m going to take a shower while you read my drama predictions.

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

Boardwalk Empire “Farewell Daddy Blues” – Tim Van Patten, Directed by

Breaking Bad “Felina” (AMC) – Vince Gilligan, Directed by

Downton Abbey “Episode 1” (PBS) – David Evans, Directed by

Game of Thrones “The Watchers on the Wall” (HBO) – Neil Marshall, Directed by

House of Cards “Chapter 14” – Carl Franklin, Directed by

True Detective “Who Goes There” – Cary Joji Fukunaga, Directed by

True Detective was clearly designed to win as many awards as possible and it probably deserves most of them. Cary Joji Fukunaga’s direction was probably my favorite part of the whole show.

Will Win: Cary Joji Fukunaga for True Detective
Should Win: Cary Joji Fukunaga for True Detective

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Breaking Bad (AMC) – Bryan Cranston as Walter White

House of Cards (Netflix) – Kevin Spacey as Francis Underwood

Mad Men (AMC) – Jon Hamm as Don Draper

The Newsroom (HBO) – Jeff Daniels as Will McAvoy

True Detective (HBO) – Woody Harrelson as Martin Hart

True Detective (HBO) – Matthew McConaughey as Rust Cohle

Vive le McConaissance! If the Emmys didn’t use a ranked ballot, there might be some concern that the two True Detective nominees might split the vote. Fortunately, that’s not a problem. There’s a minor chance that they could give it to Bryan Cranston since it was Breaking Bad‘s last season I’d be happy if any of the nominees who aren’t Jeff Daniels won but I’d be kidding myself if I thought that it was going to be anyone but Matthew McConaughey.

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey for True Detective
Should Win: Matthew McConaughey for True Detective

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Downton Abbey (PBS) – Michelle Dockery as Lady Mary Crawley

The Good Wife (CBS) – Julianna Margulies as Alicia Florrick

Homeland (Showtime) – Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison

House of Cards (Netflix) – Robin Wright as Claire Underwood

Masters of Sex (Showtime) – Lizzy Caplan as Virginia Johnson

Scandal (ABC) Kerry Washington.

I’m not quite sure of this category. I adore Lizzy Caplan in Masters of Sex and Robin Wright plays an ice queen to perfection on House of CardsDownton Abbey and Homeland had pretty weak seasons and it feels like Kerry Washington is just there to round out the category. Julianna Margulies had a lot of material to work with this season.

Will Win: Julianna Margulies for The Good Wife
Should Win: Lizzy Caplan for Masters of Sex

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Breaking Bad (AMC) – Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman

Downton Abbey (PBS) – Jim Carter as Mr. Carson

Game of Thrones (HBO) – Peter Dinkage as Tyrion Lannister

The Good Wife (CBS) – Josh Charles as Will Gardner

Homeland (Showtime) – Mandy Patinkin as Saul Berenson

Ray Donovan (Showtime) – Jon Voight as Mickey Donovan

I think the voters might go the easy way and give this to Aaron Paul since they’re not going to give best actor to Bryan Cranston. Mandy Patinkin may also repeat for Homeland. As long as they don’t pull a Golden Globes and give it to Jon Voight. His character is the main reason that I stopped watching Ray Donovan. I’m most pulling for Josh Charles, though. He was magnificent on this past season of The Good Wife.

Will Win: Aaron Paul for Breaking Bad
Should Win: Josh Charles for The Good Wife

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Breaking Bad (AMC) – Anna Gunn as Skyler White

Downton Abbey (PBS) – Joanne Froggatt as Anna Bates

Game of Thrones (HBO) – Lena Headey as Cersei Lannister

The Good Wife (CBS) – Christine Baranski as Diane Lockhart

Mad Men (AMC) – Christina Hendricks as Joan Harris

Anna Gunn should win this award. That’s all I have to say. The arguments for the other nominees are swimming around in my head and this is probably the only category where I would be OK with any of them winning but the more I think about it, the more I’m convinced that Anna Gunn has to win. Better luck finally getting an acting Emmy next year, Mad Men.

Will Win: Anna Gunn for Breaking Bad
Should Win: Anna Gunn for Breaking Bad

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

Breaking Bad (AMC) “Felina” – Vince Gilligan, Written by

Breaking Bad (AMC) “Ozymandias” – Moira Walley-Beckett, Written by

Game of Thrones (HBO) “The Children” – David Benioff, Written by; D.B. Weiss, Written by

House of Cards (Netflix) “Chapter 14” – Beau Willimon, Written by

True Detective (HBO) “The Secret Fate of All Life” – Nic Pizzolatto, Written by

The winner of this category depends on if the “Nic Pizzolatto plagiarized a lot of Rust Cohle’s dialogue” nonsense came out before ballots were submitted or not. By the way, he didn’t plagiarize; it was clearly an homage. That being said, “Ozymandias” was easily one of the best hours of television I saw this year.

Will Win: Nic Pizzolatto for True Detective
Should Win: Moira Walley-Beckett for Breaking Bad

Outstanding Drama Series

Breaking Bad (AMC)

Downton Abbey (PBS)

Game of Thrones (HBO)

House of Cards (Netflix)

Mad Men (AMC)

True Detective (HBO)

I should probably just flip a coin for this category. It’s clearly going to be Breaking Bad or True Detective. I’m going to take a firm stance and call it for Breaking Bad. So many people were expecting the end of True Detective to be more complicated than it was and that decreases its chances for the overall win.

Will WinBreaking Bad
Should WinBreaking Bad

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