Throughout the week, I will be providing Emmy predictions, leading up to the award ceremony on Monday, August 25, on NBC. Today, we’ll be starting with the areas that I know almost nothing about: Variety and Reality. I’ll be presenting even more wild speculation than I will be when I predict the results in the other genres.

Most of the awards for variety and reality were given out at Saturday’s Creative Arts Emmys so there aren’t too many categories to go through. For each category, I will make a prediction for who or what will win and for who or what I think should win.

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special

The Beatles: The Night That Changed America (CBS) – Gregg Gelfand, Directed by

The Kennedy Center Honors (CBS) – Louis J. Horvitz, Directed by

The Oscars (ABS) – Hamish Hamilton, Directed by

Six By Sondheim (HBO) James Lapine, Directed by

The Sound of Music Live! (NBC) – Beth McCarthy Miller, Directed by; Rob Ashford, Theatrical Direction by

67th Annual Tony Awards (CBS) – Glenn Weiss, Directed by

As far as I can tell, the only reason that this category is included in the main ceremony instead of the Shmemmys is because the director of the main ceremony is usually nominated. I have absolutely no opinion on this category. So here’s the first of many stabs in the dark!

Will Win: Whomever is directing this year’s Emmy ceremony so that he can be all smug about his win from the booth and give himself as much time as he’d like for his speech without being played off.
Should Win: Beth McCarthy Miller and Rob Ashford for The Sound of Music Live! because women don’t win enough directing awards.

Outstanding Variety Series

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)

Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)

Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)

Saturday Night Live (NBC)

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

Stephen, Stephen, Stephen! The Colbert Report finally wrestled best variety series out of The Daily Show‘s hands last year, the Emmy voters are lazy so they’re perfectly happy to keep awarding the same show year after year, they also like to give shows awards when they’re done for (although The Colbert Report will also be eligible for nomination next year), and also, The Colbert Report is absolutely the best of these shows.

Will Win: The Colbert Report
Should Win: The Colbert Report

Outstanding Variety Special

AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Mel Brooks (TNT)

The Beatles: The Night That Changed America (CBS)

Best of Late Night with Jimmy Fallon Primetime Special (NBC)

Billy Crystal: 700 Sundays (HBO)

The Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)

Sarah Silverman: We Are Miracles (HBO)

I have seen none of these. Last year, The Kennedy Center Honors won. Of course, the Emmys love themselves some Billy Crystal. I love Mel Brooks as most comedy nerds do. For that reason, I’m saying

Will Win: Billy Crystal: 700 Sundays
Should Win: AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Mel Brooks

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

The Amazing Race (CBS)

Dancing with the Stars (ABC)

Project Runway (Lifetime)

So You Think You Can Dance (FOX)

Top Chef (Bravo)

The Voice (NBC)

The Amazing Race has won this award seven out of the thirteen years that it has been presented. That’s enough, right? I have no particular feelings on Dancing with the Stars. Project Runway hasn’t deserved to win it since it switched to Lifetime. So You Think You Can Dance has had a similar decline in quality. That leaves the two single-time winners, Top Chef and The Voice. I find it notable that I still enjoy Top Chef as much as I do since it’s had 11 season and multiple spinoffs. The Voice is a ratings juggernaut, it just won last year, and it really is the best of the current batch of reality singing competitions. I’m fine with either of these two.

Will Win: The Voice
Should Win: Top Chef. Or The Voice. Really, it’s fine.

I’ll be back in a day or two with the Miniseries and Movie nominations.