The Golden Globes are upon us! We each have posts coming predicting the winners, but to prevent massive text overload, we’ve broken it into two parts. Here, for your enjoyment, is the movie half of the preview. Our TV predictions are here.

So, before any actual predictions, the biggest disclaimer in the world: I don’t know anything about the Golden Globes. What I know about the Golden Globes is that they split their categories weirdly and that they are the biggest ceremony before the Oscars, but don’t actually have a ton of predictive value. Therefore I am interested as far as eyebrow-raising inclusions in nominations and outlier winners, but I don’t pretend to know the trends or voting history. Unlike the Oscars, where I know everything. Obviously.

That said, let’s do this!

Best Screenplay

Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell and Eric Warren Singer, American Hustle

The awards pundits seem to just love American Hustle in basically every category and it seems to be the major rival for 12 Years a Slave, perhaps even usurping Gravity‘s position as primary challenger. Neither one of them is the second-best movie of the year (but then again, 12 Years a Slave isn’t number one either) but even people who campaign for Gravity in every category admit that the script is not a great selling point.

Should win: Nebraska. Or Her
Will win: American Hustle

Best Original Score

Alex Ebert, All is Lost
Alex Heffes, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Steven Price, Gravity
John Williams, The Book Thief
Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave

Heck if I know. I’ve only seen three of these five and I don’t really remember the music in any of them. I’ll give it to 12 Years a Slave because it’s going to win a bunch of things and because Hans Zimmer.

Should win: shrug. All is Lost, because it was good and it’s not going to win enough things?
Will win: 12 Years a Slave

Best Original Song

“Altas,” The Hunger Games
“Let it Go,” Frozen
“Ordinary Love,” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
“Please Mr. Kennedy,” Inside Llewyn Davis
“Sweeter than Fiction,” One Chance

This is the easiest category for both answers. Even if you have no interest in the Coen brothers’ fantastically dreary, intentionally bleak starving-artist period piece, you need to listen to “Please Mr. Kennedy.” It’s the greatest.

On the awards front, “Let it Go” went from Disney Movie Song to karaoke staple and gay anthem in .03 milliseconds. It’s going to roll through this category all the way to the Oscar.

Should win: “Please Mr. Kennedy”
Win will: “Let it Go”

Best Animated Film

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Frozen

I thought Monsters University was actually not too bad, so it’s interesting that it’s not here in a field of only three categories. Whatever, Frozen was the presumptive winner before it hit theaters.

Should win: I don’t care, Frozen, I guess.
Will win: Frozen

Best Foreign Language Film

Blue Is the Warmest Color
The Hunt
The Past
The Great Beauty
The Wind Rises

I’ve only seen one of these and didn’t like it. They’ve all gotten excellent reviews, though, including Blue is the Warmest Color, which is the very definition of a movie that doesn’t earn its three-hour run time. The Past is by Asghar Farhadi, who won in 2011 for A Separation, but the buzz that should be automatic around something like that has been nonexistent so far. They’re only just now playing previews for that in Chicago, so it might just be that no one’s seen it yet. Blue has the huge advantage here, having come out many months ago and being the subject of such media controversy.

Should win: Anything but Blue
Will win: Blue is the Warmest Color

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Although Abdi and Bruhl have both picked up steam in recent weeks, this is a two-person race between Fassbender and Leto. And one of those has won nearly every regional critics’ award on the way.

Should win: Michael Fassbender
Will win: Jared Leto

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
June Squibb, Nebraska
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Anyone who says that June Squibb is a caricature or that her comedy only comes from “haha grandma’s saying bad words!” didn’t watch the right movie. There isn’t a false note in that performance. That said, she’s in the also-ran section with Sally Hawkins and Julia Roberts, Roberts’ big-name star power be damned. That leaves us with Jennifer Lawrence, awards darling and adorable quote machine, and Lupita Nyong’o, the total burst-onto-the-scene newcomer that made people go “WHOA. So that’s what good acting looks like again.” Lawrence is 3 for 3 in Golden Globe nominations for real movies (yes, I’m callously disregarding The Hunger Games. Just watch me callously disregard them.). She won one (last year, Silver Linings Playbook) and lost the first one to eventual Academy Award-winner Natalie Portman, who had a mortal lock on that trophy since the day Black Swan opened in theaters. This is JLaw’s race to lose, and if she does, Nyong’o will be the official favorite to win the Oscar.

Should win: Lupita Nyong’o
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence

Best Actor, Musical or Comedy

Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix, Her

The Best Actor category(s) are so stacked this year it’s ridiculous. Besides the 10 listed here, there are another half a dozen viable contenders who might have been nominated in weaker years. And only five of them will get nominated for the Oscar. It’s usually a lie to say it’s a honor just to be nominated, but this year that’s actually true. It sucks that Leo’s likely not even getting nominated for the Oscar, as he’s tragically undernominated and way under-awarded. However, Bruce Dern hasn’t been nominated for an Oscar since 1978, which sets him up perfectly for the Oscar (or Golden Globe) as Lifetime Achievement Award.

Should win: Bruce Dern
Will win: Bruce Dern

Best Actor, Drama

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Earlier this awards cycle, Matthew McConaughey looked like a lock for an Oscar nomination and possibly even a win. Losing 40 lbs to play an AIDS patient who fights The System to survive? That’s a heaping helping of Oscar bait right there. But the only thing more Oscar-y than that is slavery, and 12 Years a Slave has been the heavyweight all season. Off all on his own (pun intended) is Robert Redford, who is poised to win the same kind of lifetime achievement award as Bruce Dern.

Should win: Robert Redford
Will win: Chiwetel Ejiofor

Best Actress, Comedy

Amy Adams, American Hustle
Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

While Frances Ha, Before Midnight, and Enough Said are all very good movies, none of those actresses are winning. It’s a two-person race between Streep and Adams, and none of this really matters since Cate Blanchett is going to crush this winner with the rest of the competition for the Oscar.

Should win: Julie Delpy
Will win: Amy Adams

Best Actress, Drama

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Kate Winslet, Labor Day

Cate Blanchett. Cate Blanchett. Cate Blanchett. While McConaughey lost his Oscar momentum (or rather, got swept up in a rising tide of all the great lead actor performances this year), this is the one category that’s been a lock since last summer.

Should win: Cate Blanchett
Will win: Cate Blanchett

Best Director

Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle

The first two you can cross off immediately are Alexander Payne and Paul Greengrass. Both made excellent movies that will get awards in other categories, neither is winning this one. It’s a three-man race between the rest of them;

Should win: Alexander Payne
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón

Best Picture, Drama

12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Philomena
Rush

Without American Hustle for direct competition, this is 12 Years a Slave‘s category to lose. I expect it to roll through most of the categories it’s nominated in, without having see the actual, you know, nominations yet.

Should win: 12 Years a Slave
Will win: 12 Years a Slave

Best Picture, Comedy

American Hustle
Her
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
Inside Llewyn Davis

How great is this category? I’m not a fan of American Hustle as many people are, but all four other films are so good. Good job, movie industry, for showing such range this year. From the ’60s to the near future, from a black-and-white extended family dinner in the Midwest to a sleazy stock broker snorting cocaine off his mistress’ breasts in the back of a limo in New York… man. Just go see all these movies.

Should win: Everything but American Hustle
Will win: American Hustle