The Golden Globes are upon us! We each have posts coming predicting the winners, but to prevent massive text overload, we’ve broken it into two parts. Here, for your enjoyment, is the TV half of the preview. The movie half is here.

Best TV Series, Drama

Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
The Good Wife
House of Cards
Masters of Sex

I have to begin with a brief confession that may make you instantly throw out everything I have to say about TV ever again. I have never watched Downton Abbey. It’s on my list of things I’ll eventually get to but it’s a long list. Even with that being said, I follow a lot of people that say things about TV and the impression that I get is that the quality of Downton Abbey has declined. Of course, the HFPA likes to award things that aren’t from the US so it still has a chance. I watch all of the other nominated shows and they’ve all had fantastic years but this is clearly Breaking Bad‘s year. It’s the last chance to give a truly excellent show with a perfect ending the awards it so clearly deserves.

Should win: Breaking Bad
Will win: Breaking Bad

Best Actress, TV Drama

Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Tatiana Maslaney, Orphan Black
Taylor Schilling, Orange is the New Black
Kerry Washington, Scandal
Robin Wright, House of Cards

Tatiana Maslaney is almost the entire cast of Orphan Black all on her own. She can play three characters in the same scene and you forget that you’re watching the same actress. The Good Wife is currently having one of its best storylines ever and while Julianna Margulies is playing Alicia Florick perfectly well, I chalk up my renewed enjoyment in the series to the efforts of the showrunners and writers. Taylor Schilling was also a perfectly capable lead of a show that had an excellent season but her nomination seems like the HFPA wanting to recognize Orange is the New Black in some way. Kerry Washington probably has a bit more of a shot than Schilling but I wouldn’t put her high on the list. Robin Wright perfectly played a calculating ice bitch in House of Cards and the HFPA does love a movie star, but that love usually goes more towards nominating them so that they’ll show up and gussy up their red carpet. Tatiana Maslaney feels exactly like the weird kind of win that the HFPA would award and in this case she would totally deserve it.

Should win: Tatiana Maslaney
Will win: Tatiana Maslaney

Best Actor, TV Drama

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Michael Sheen, Masters of Sex
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
James Spader, The Blacklist

I could make an argument for everyone on this list except Liev Schreiber on this list. Yes, he has a movie star past that could work in his favor but Ray Donovan was boring. I gave up. Sheen, Spacey, and Spader also have movie star backgrounds that could help them with Sheen getting the non-American bump in the HFPA’s consideration. All of that being said, it has to be Cranston. Has to.

Should win: Bryan Cranston
Will win: Bryan Cranston

Best TV Series, TV Musical or Comedy

The Big Bang Theory
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Girls
Modern Family
Parks and Recreation

The Big Bang Theory has massive ratings working in its favor. Brooklyn Nine-Nine is an ensemble comedy that’s becoming a show that will be totally worthy of awards in a year or two. Girls won last year and did some pretty great experimental things in its second season that should be applauded. Modern Family started with a façade of edginess that makes people feel good when they give it awards but it’s really just a family sitcom. Parks and Recreation makes me happy. Very, very happy. It finds a way to do social commentary without being mean spirited. It should get more awards.

Should win: Parks and Recreation
Will win: Girls

Best Actress, TV Musical or Comedy

Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Zooey Deschanel is not the best part of New Girl. Lena Dunham should be awarded more as a writer and creator than as an actor. Some parts of Nurse Jackie are funny but those parts are rarely performed by Edie Falco. Julia Louis-Dreyfus is fantastic in Veep. Amy Poehler is fantastic in everything, especially as Leslie Knope in Parks and Recreation, but people don’t seem to want to give Parks and Rec awards.

Should win: Amy Poehler
Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Best Actor, TV Musical or Comedy

Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Michael J. Fox, The Michael J. Fox Show
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Andy Samberg, Brooklyn Nine-Nine

I hate this category. I suppose the nominees are deserving enough, it’s just that women seem to be the stronger comedy leads right now. If Jason Bateman wins, it will be for what Arrested Development was and not for what happened in the Netflix season. Don Cheadle is fine in House of Lies but I almost gave up on the show last season and probably won’t be watching it when the new season starts on Sunday. Michael J. Fox has shown in guest roles for the past few years that he is so much better than the material in The Michael J. Fox Show. Jim Parsons is actually great as Dr. Sheldon Cooper but it’s practically become a cliché to give The Big Bang Theory awards at this point. Andy Samberg is not the hammy mess that many feared he would be in Brooklyn Nine-Nine but Andre Braugher is also a lead and I wish that the nomination had gone to him.

Should win: Jim Parsons
Will win: Jason Bateman

Best TV Movie or Mini-Series

American Horror Story: Coven Behind the Candelabra
Dancing on the Edge
Top of the Lake
White Queen

I’d love to see some recognition for Top of the Lake but I don’t even feel the need to discuss this one. Behind the Candelabra is a TV movie in name only and the HFPA will fall all over themselves for it. Fortunately, it was a good movie.

Should win: Behind the Candelabra
Will win: Behind the Candelabra

Best Actress, TV Movie or Mini-Series

Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor
Rebecca Ferguson, The White Queen
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake

Already, I’m assuming that the HFPA will want to give this one to a movie star-type, especially Jessica Lange or Helen Mirren. Helena Bonham Carter gave a great performance in Burton and Taylor but I think that Lange and Mirren have the greater cache. I don’t want to count out Elisabeth Moss, though. She was so good in Top of the Lake. She could fill a scene while being quiet and delicate. The HFPA may also toss this one out as a “Sorry we didn’t give Mad Men any nominations this year”. She deserves it even without it but Lange had the showier performance. That woman is a fabulous scene chewer.

Should win: Elisabeth Moss
Will win: Jessica Lange

Best Actor, TV Movie or Mini-Series

Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra
Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
Idris Elba, Luther
Al Pacino, Phil Spector

Matt Damon may have rocked the sparkly Speedo but it’s his Behind the Candelabra co-star that’s going to take this one.

Should win: Michael Douglas
Will win: Michael Douglas

Best Supporting Actress, TV Drama, Comedy, Musical, Movie, or Mini-Series

Just in case you thought that the HFPA actually care about TV, they don’t. Shoving all of the TV supporting actresses into one category and the supporting actors into another is ridiculous. These actors are out there giving fantastic performances. A great lead is all fine and good but the supporting cast is so important in TV. A lot of shows rely on the strength of the ensemble so to cut the chance of recognition down to a third of what it should be is horrendous.

Jacqueline Bisset, Dancing on the Edge
Janet McTeer, The White Queen
Hayden Panettiere, Nashville
Monica Potter, Parenthood
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

Hayden Panettiere is giving a career defining performance on Nashville. She’s the best combination of singer and actress that that show has. Unfortunately, singing and acting on a glorified soap opera can’t beat a well-played cancer story. Parenthood is on my list of “more people should watch this and give it awards” and Monica Potter played the hell out of it.

Should win: Hayden Panettiere
Will win: Monica Potter

Supporting Actor, TV Drama, Comedy, Musical, Movie, or Mini-Series

Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Rob Lowe, Behind the Candelabra
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Corey Stoll, House of Cards
Jon Voigt, Ray Donovan

Aaron Paul will probably win. Aaron Paul deserves to win and has the bonus of this being the last chance that he can collect a Golden Globe for Breaking Bad. This is Corey Stoll’s only chance to collect a Golden Globe for House of Cards, though and I wish he would. He gave an absolutely heartbreaking performance of a politician in over his head in the Netflix drama. While he doesn’t stand a chance, I also want to give a special shout out to Rob Lowe and his ridiculously awesome makeup in Behind the Candelabra.

Should win: Corey Stoll
Will win: Aaron Paul